Microsoft Copilot Is Treading Water

According to Microsoft’s figures, Copilot has twenty million active users, and that number is hardly growing. Is Microsoft at risk of falling behind in the AI race?

In a presentation, Microsoft CFO Amy Hood shared figures about Copilot. Microsoft has been rather sparse with these, and now it’s clear why. With 20 million active users, Copilot lags far behind competing chatbots like ChatGPT and Google Gemini.

What will worry Microsoft most is Copilot’s adoption curve. Newcomer, which managed to obtain the slides, describes it as ‘a flat line’, meaning that since its launch in 2023, there have been few to no new users added. Microsoft has invested heavily in the success of Copilot, but risks having overplayed its hand.

From Frontrunner to Laggard?

Microsoft entered the AI race in the spring of 2023 with Bing Chat, which would eventually become the precursor to Copilot. Thanks to the strong partnership with OpenAI, Microsoft seemed to start with a significant lead. It would soon become clear that OpenAI, besides being a loyal partner, is also a formidable competitor: people became attached to ChatGPT and are ignoring Copilot.

Now that Google is making an intermediate sprint and Anthropic is increasingly asserting itself in AI debates, Microsoft seems to be lagging behind. With 20 million active weekly users, Copilot doesn’t even come close to ChatGPT and Google Gemini, which according to estimates attract 350 to 400 million monthly users. Exact figures are scarce. Redmond has invested heavily in AI and cannot afford for Copilot to fail.

Artificial Intrusiveness

Microsoft won’t give up so easily. The integration of Copilot in Office applications, used daily by hundreds of millions of people, is a trump card Microsoft wants to play. Perhaps a bit too eagerly: Microsoft plans to make Copilot a standard component of the 365 subscription, with a price increase.

The decision is met with mixed reactions, as not everyone is waiting for Copilot. Many subscribers are unhappy with the imposed price increase, while for others, Copilot evokes unpleasant memories of Clippy by imposing itself at every turn. Microsoft needs to be careful that by aggressively pushing Copilot, it doesn’t drive users away.