As Samsung and Micron stop production of DDR4 memory, supply threatens to no longer meet demand.
The price of DDR4 memory is going up. That’s what Trendforce predicts. The price increase is a direct result of decisions by both Samsung and Micron. Both manufacturers are scaling down their production and even plan to close production lines. For servers, a price increase of 23 percent for memory is looming, for PCs 18 percent.
DDR4 memory saw the light of day in 2014 and has thus been around for eleven years. Four years ago, the market embraced DDR5 RAM. DDR5 is now the standard for most PCs and servers, but not for all. Specifically for entry-level models, the older DDR4 memory is a budget-friendly solution.
Chaos
This situation is now under pressure. Samsung is going to definitively stop production of 8 Gb LPDDR4 and will no longer accept orders after this month. Micron has already informed customers of the end of life plans for both DDR4 and LPDDR4.
While supply decreases, buyers want to stock up on extra memory. The tariff frenzy in the US is further artificially increasing demand. This creates a large imbalance, alongside chaos and panic in the market. It seems difficult to set fixed prices for the memory.
Besides Micron and Samsung, there are other (Chinese) DDR4 manufacturers. They are smaller and less specialized in global activities. Taiwan also still has some DDR4 builders, but their capacity is not sufficient either.
Cyclical Market
The memory market and associated prices are traditionally subject to cyclical changes. This is because production is not very flexible. It takes time to scale up or down. However, demand can rise and fall quickly under the impact of economic developments. This can quickly lead to surpluses (and thus low prices) or shortages (and high prices). Memory manufacturers struggle during times of surplus, but potentially compensate for losses when prices rise.
It’s unclear how to proceed from here. Demand will decrease when manufacturers are satisfied with their reserve stock. However, major manufacturers Samsung and Micron are unlikely to invest further in DDR4.