After DRAM prices already reached high peaks at the end of last year, analysts are now predicting a further increase of more than 50 percent instead of a stabilization.
Rumors about a stabilization of the DRAM price in the first half of this year seem too optimistic for the time being. Trendforce predicts a price increase of memory of 55 to 60 percent for the first quarter of this year compared to Q4 of last year, and an increase of approximately 95 percent compared to a year earlier.
AI increases the price
The cause remains unchanged: a few large AI hyperscalers, including OpenAI, Meta, Google, Microsoft, and AWS, are responsible for such an immense demand for HBM that manufacturers can no longer use their inadequate production capacity for classic DRAM memory. That High Bandwith Memory is a crucial component of AI hardware from Nvidia (and AMD). It rolls off the same production lines as DRAM, but brings manufacturers more.
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At the end of last year, the hope arose that prices would gradually stabilize, after a huge increase in 2025. If Trendforce’s prediction is correct, that is not yet the case.
Impact on laptops and smartphones
The shortages and high prices have a broad impact. Think not only of RAM modules on the shelves for self-builders, but especially of DRAM for laptops and smartphones.
LPDDRX4 and LPDDRX5, for example, will both be about 90 percent more expensive in Q1 of 2026 compared to a year earlier. American smartphone builders have just negotiated their prices and their Chinese manufacturers are finalizing their prices in the course of the month, according to Trendforce. In other words, the price increase will be noticeable for those who want to buy a new smartphone this year.
Also SSDs
For NAND flash, which forms the building block of SSDs, the situation is slightly less dramatic. Manufacturers are also unable to meet demand, again due to AI, but they are doing everything they can to manufacture as much NAND as possible. The price of SSDs will therefore continue to rise in the coming quarter, but the rate of increase is decreasing. Compared to a year earlier, prices will be about 55 percent higher.