The PC market experienced strong growth in the first quarter, but Trump’s import tariffs could throw a wrench in the works, Canalys predicts. Manufacturers are cautious with their statements.
The number of shipped laptops and desktops increased by ten percent in the first quarter of 2025. That’s the conclusion of Canalys in its analysis. A total of 62.7 million PCs were sold and delivered. Lenovo strengthens its market position compared to HP and Dell, while Apple is the strongest riser.
One might conclude that the PC market has fully recovered from the post-covid dip, but Canalys tempers the enthusiasm. The current occupant of the White House in Washington could, with his unpredictable actions, ensure that growth flattens out again in the coming quarters. Canalys warns not for the first time about the impact of US import tariffs on the PC market.
Trump Ruins the Party
President Donald Trump surprised friends, foes, and pretty much the entire world when he announced his list of import tariffs last Wednesday. Although Trump had been threatening this for a long time, with him you’re never sure what he means and doesn’t mean. Nothing or no one was spared, not even uninhabited islands where only penguin colonies live.
Meanwhile, Trump has reversed course 180 degrees again. Countries that behave and don’t take countermeasures get a ‘pause’ of ninety days to negotiate better tariffs. China has not accepted this offer. As a result, there’s a ‘bidding war’ between both countries over who can impose the highest tariffs on the other. This threatens to drag TSMC into the tariff war, despite earlier promises to exempt chip technology from import duties, which would also be bad news for customers of the Taiwanese chip giant.
Canalys looks with some concern at the uncertain situation for the PC market. The end of support for Windows 10 should create momentum to continue the growth of the first quarter, and manufacturers hope that their so-called AI PCs will finally take off. However, the tariffs could push up device prices worldwide, which could especially deter consumers from investing in a new device.
Ironically, Canalys partly attributes the growth of the first quarter to the tariffs. Manufacturers have stepped up their production and deliveries to ship as many devices as possible before the import tariffs took effect. But what the coming quarters will bring, no one knows, not even manufacturers.
Difficult Position
Trump’s aggressive, protectionist policy is pushing PC manufacturers into a difficult position. The ultimate goal is to bring production to American soil, but manufacturers of all kinds of electronics are not eager for this. According to estimates, the iPhone would cost more than three thousand dollars if it were made in the United States.
PC manufacturers have had to adapt to Trump’s whims since his first term. That China is no longer the promised land for production factories has been clear to them for a while. As a result, PC production has largely shifted from China to countries like Vietnam, Thailand, India, and Mexico. The fact that these countries are now also being heavily taxed is a blow for the manufacturers.
ITdaily asked some market leaders in the PC market how they are dealing with the ‘Trump tariffs’ and only received a (cautious) answer from Dell. Dell is adamant that its supply chain is ‘resilient and agile to successfully navigate challenges’.
“We are currently reviewing the implementing decrees on import tariffs and subsequent government announcements to understand how these may affect our customers, partners, and our business. We are working to limit the impact of import tariffs,” the statement reads.
Dell currently sees no direct impact on the prices of its products, but at the same time does not rule out that this might be possible in the future. “Should it be necessary to pay import tariffs, these are considered a cost element, which may potentially lead to price adjustments.”